17日,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)一季度的成績單出爐。
國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局國民經(jīng)濟(jì)綜合統(tǒng)計(jì)司司長毛盛勇在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示,2019年一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行比較平穩(wěn),國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值同比增長6.4%,特別是3月份多數(shù)指標(biāo)好于預(yù)期,市場的預(yù)期在不斷改善,積極因素逐漸增多。從整個(gè)一季度來看,經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行是開局平穩(wěn)、穩(wěn)中有進(jìn)。
國外機(jī)構(gòu)“看漲”中國經(jīng)濟(jì)
近日,國外投行紛紛上調(diào)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期。
據(jù)《華盛頓郵報(bào)》17日報(bào)道,瑞銀將今年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)測從6.1%上調(diào)至6.4%。
Economists at UBS upgraded their forecast for Chinese growth this year from 6.1 percent to 6.4 percent.
文章稱,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)再次推翻了特朗普對其陷入困境的預(yù)期。官方統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字顯示,今年前三個(gè)月,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)同比增長6.4%。
China's economy has again defied President Trump's predictions that it is in trouble, with official statistics showing it grew by a surprisingly robust 6.4 percent in the first three months of the year.
文章援引Trivium China咨詢公司經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯·波爾克的話稱,“特朗普應(yīng)該意識到,這個(gè)現(xiàn)象表明,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)落入懸崖!
“Trump should realize this is a sign that China's economy is not about to fall off a cliff,” said Andrew Polk of Trivium China, a consultancy.
康奈爾大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Eswar Prasad稱,“最新的增長數(shù)據(jù)表明,政府的刺激手段正在發(fā)揮作用,穩(wěn)定增長”。
“The latest growth numbers suggest that the government's stimulus measures are taking hold and stabilizing growth,” said economist Eswar Prasad of Cornell University.
Prasad表示,最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),再加上人們對(中美)貿(mào)易協(xié)議的私下猜測,讓我們有理由對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)更加樂觀。
Recent statistics, combined with murmurings about a trade deal, suggested there was reason to be more optimistic about China's economy than even a few months ago, Prasad said.
與此同時(shí),據(jù)新浪財(cái)經(jīng)報(bào)道,摩根士丹利也將今年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測從6.3%上調(diào)至6.5%,并稱隨著財(cái)政刺激政策充分奏效,國際貿(mào)易局勢緩和以及消費(fèi)者信心恢復(fù)正常,預(yù)計(jì)2019年剩余時(shí)間經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將保持向好態(tài)勢。
此前,4月9日,IMF發(fā)布最新一期全球經(jīng)濟(jì)展望,將2019年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)期下調(diào)至 3.3%,為金融危機(jī)以來新低。
值得注意的是,亞洲方面,中國成為此次唯一獲得增速預(yù)期上調(diào)的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體。IMF 將中國2019年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)期上調(diào)至 6.3%,比1月的6.2%高0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
專家:2019年經(jīng)濟(jì)大環(huán)境更平穩(wěn)
現(xiàn)代國際關(guān)系研究院對外經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所所長陳鳳英表示,瑞士銀行和摩根士丹利都是投資銀行,相比專門的評級機(jī)構(gòu)來講,更加市場化,也對市場風(fēng)向更為敏感。無論是投行還是評級機(jī)構(gòu),調(diào)高中國經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期,都一定是經(jīng)過了仔細(xì)判斷后作出的決定。從我們來講,有很多地方可以供判斷。
首先,第一季度中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長數(shù)據(jù)已出爐,為6.4%,可以預(yù)計(jì),全年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速應(yīng)當(dāng)不會(huì)低于這個(gè)數(shù),至少能穩(wěn)定在6.4%到6.5%的區(qū)間內(nèi)。
其次,2019年的經(jīng)濟(jì)大環(huán)境比2018年更加平穩(wěn)。國際上,中美貿(mào)易摩擦談判進(jìn)展順利,有望達(dá)成協(xié)議,這將進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)中美進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易往來,對兩國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長都是好消息。國內(nèi),中國的減稅措施已初顯成效,第一季度居民收入數(shù)據(jù)增加不少,這也會(huì)促進(jìn)消費(fèi),給經(jīng)濟(jì)增長提供更為強(qiáng)勁的動(dòng)力。
最后,國際機(jī)構(gòu)和投行看好中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速,但我們要有定力,要看到中國經(jīng)濟(jì)需要的不僅是增長,更是轉(zhuǎn)型,是高質(zhì)量的發(fā)展。經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型是一項(xiàng)持久的任務(wù),也不是簡單的幾個(gè)數(shù)字能說明的。
外媒:中國經(jīng)濟(jì)好于預(yù)期
外媒紛紛認(rèn)為,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長好于預(yù)期。
CNN報(bào)道稱,2019年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)開局。
文章援引摩根大通資產(chǎn)管理公司亞太區(qū)首席市場策略師Tai Hui的話稱,“這表明中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長正在觸底反彈,這一勢頭可能會(huì)持續(xù)數(shù)月!
"This confirms that China's economic growth is bottoming out and this momentum is likely to continue going into months ahead," said Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia-Pacific at investment firm JPMorgan Asset Management.
英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》網(wǎng)站也認(rèn)為,今年第一季度中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增速高于預(yù)期。
文章也援引市場策略師Tai Hui的話稱,“預(yù)計(jì)第一季度將成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長周期的低點(diǎn),最近的數(shù)據(jù)表明,政府穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)的政策正在生效!
“Q1 is expected to mark the low point of China's growth cycle,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia Pacific market strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management. “Recent data indicate that government policy to stabilise the economy is taking effect.”
新加坡《聯(lián)合早報(bào)》4月17日援引中原銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家王軍的話稱,中國最新的GDP增幅有些出人意料,這表現(xiàn)出,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的韌性和穩(wěn)定性仍比較強(qiáng)。