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中國(guó)一季度數(shù)據(jù)亮點(diǎn)不只6.4%

  17日,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)一季度的成績(jī)單出爐。
  
  國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)綜合統(tǒng)計(jì)司司長(zhǎng)毛盛勇在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示,2019年一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行比較平穩(wěn),國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值同比增長(zhǎng)6.4%,特別是3月份多數(shù)指標(biāo)好于預(yù)期,市場(chǎng)的預(yù)期在不斷改善,積極因素逐漸增多。從整個(gè)一季度來看,經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行是開局平穩(wěn)、穩(wěn)中有進(jìn)。
  
  國(guó)外機(jī)構(gòu)“看漲”中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)
  
  近日,國(guó)外投行紛紛上調(diào)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期。
  
  據(jù)《華盛頓郵報(bào)》17日?qǐng)?bào)道,瑞銀將今年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)測(cè)從6.1%上調(diào)至6.4%。
  
  Economists at UBS upgraded their forecast for Chinese growth this year from 6.1 percent to 6.4 percent.
  
  文章稱,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)再次推翻了特朗普對(duì)其陷入困境的預(yù)期。官方統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字顯示,今年前三個(gè)月,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)同比增長(zhǎng)6.4%。
  
  China's economy has again defied President Trump's predictions that it is in trouble, with official statistics showing it grew by a surprisingly robust 6.4 percent in the first three months of the year.
  
  文章援引Trivium China咨詢公司經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯·波爾克的話稱,“特朗普應(yīng)該意識(shí)到,這個(gè)現(xiàn)象表明,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)落入懸崖。”
  
  “Trump should realize this is a sign that China's economy is not about to fall off a cliff,” said Andrew Polk of Trivium China, a consultancy.
  
  康奈爾大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Eswar Prasad稱,“最新的增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)表明,政府的刺激手段正在發(fā)揮作用,穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)”。
  
  “The latest growth numbers suggest that the government's stimulus measures are taking hold and stabilizing growth,” said economist Eswar Prasad of Cornell University.
  
  Prasad表示,最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),再加上人們對(duì)(中美)貿(mào)易協(xié)議的私下猜測(cè),讓我們有理由對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)更加樂觀。
  
  Recent statistics, combined with murmurings about a trade deal, suggested there was reason to be more optimistic about China's economy than even a few months ago, Prasad said.
  
  與此同時(shí),據(jù)新浪財(cái)經(jīng)報(bào)道,摩根士丹利也將今年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)從6.3%上調(diào)至6.5%,并稱隨著財(cái)政刺激政策充分奏效,國(guó)際貿(mào)易局勢(shì)緩和以及消費(fèi)者信心恢復(fù)正常,預(yù)計(jì)2019年剩余時(shí)間經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將保持向好態(tài)勢(shì)。
  
  此前,4月9日,IMF發(fā)布最新一期全球經(jīng)濟(jì)展望,將2019年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)期下調(diào)至 3.3%,為金融危機(jī)以來新低。
     
  值得注意的是,亞洲方面,中國(guó)成為此次唯一獲得增速預(yù)期上調(diào)的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體。IMF 將中國(guó)2019年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)期上調(diào)至 6.3%,比1月的6.2%高0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
  
  專家:2019年經(jīng)濟(jì)大環(huán)境更平穩(wěn)
  
  現(xiàn)代國(guó)際關(guān)系研究院對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所所長(zhǎng)陳鳳英表示,瑞士銀行和摩根士丹利都是投資銀行,相比專門的評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)來講,更加市場(chǎng)化,也對(duì)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)向更為敏感。無論是投行還是評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu),調(diào)高中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期,都一定是經(jīng)過了仔細(xì)判斷后作出的決定。從我們來講,有很多地方可以供判斷。
  
  首先,第一季度中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)已出爐,為6.4%,可以預(yù)計(jì),全年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速應(yīng)當(dāng)不會(huì)低于這個(gè)數(shù),至少能穩(wěn)定在6.4%到6.5%的區(qū)間內(nèi)。
  
  其次,2019年的經(jīng)濟(jì)大環(huán)境比2018年更加平穩(wěn)。國(guó)際上,中美貿(mào)易摩擦談判進(jìn)展順利,有望達(dá)成協(xié)議,這將進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)中美進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易往來,對(duì)兩國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都是好消息。國(guó)內(nèi),中國(guó)的減稅措施已初顯成效,第一季度居民收入數(shù)據(jù)增加不少,這也會(huì)促進(jìn)消費(fèi),給經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)提供更為強(qiáng)勁的動(dòng)力。
  
  最后,國(guó)際機(jī)構(gòu)和投行看好中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速,但我們要有定力,要看到中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)需要的不僅是增長(zhǎng),更是轉(zhuǎn)型,是高質(zhì)量的發(fā)展。經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型是一項(xiàng)持久的任務(wù),也不是簡(jiǎn)單的幾個(gè)數(shù)字能說明的。
  
  外媒:中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)好于預(yù)期
  
  外媒紛紛認(rèn)為,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)好于預(yù)期。
  
  CNN報(bào)道稱,2019年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)開局。
  
  文章援引摩根大通資產(chǎn)管理公司亞太區(qū)首席市場(chǎng)策略師Tai Hui的話稱,“這表明中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)正在觸底反彈,這一勢(shì)頭可能會(huì)持續(xù)數(shù)月!
  
  "This confirms that China's economic growth is bottoming out and this momentum is likely to continue going into months ahead," said Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia-Pacific at investment firm JPMorgan Asset Management.
  
  英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》網(wǎng)站也認(rèn)為,今年第一季度中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增速高于預(yù)期。
  
  文章也援引市場(chǎng)策略師Tai Hui的話稱,“預(yù)計(jì)第一季度將成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)周期的低點(diǎn),最近的數(shù)據(jù)表明,政府穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)的政策正在生效。”
  
  “Q1 is expected to mark the low point of China's growth cycle,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia Pacific market strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management. “Recent data indicate that government policy to stabilise the economy is taking effect.”
  
  新加坡《聯(lián)合早報(bào)》4月17日援引中原銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家王軍的話稱,中國(guó)最新的GDP增幅有些出人意料,這表現(xiàn)出,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的韌性和穩(wěn)定性仍比較強(qiáng)。